‘There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen’. This oft-attributed quote to Valdimir Lenin undoubtedly described the years that he lived through, and may equally aptly describe our age. This Parliament feels as if it has lasted an age, and yet there are signs that we have come through the worst of it, together.
2019 is only four and a half years away. But, goodness me, doesn’t it feel like an awfully long time ago? It was a time before Zoom and Teams entered the mainstream consciousness before video calls properly took hold. It is often difficult to capture and express real-time feelings after the event. Nevertheless, I do recall a real sense of foreboding and inauspiciousness in those dark days of March 2020 just before the national lockdown. There was a real and pervasive sense of uncertainty.
Events moved at breakneck speed at the start of 2020. This dictated the speed of response from the Government. Perhaps the most well-remembered scheme of the pandemic, the furlough scheme, supported 9 million jobs at the height of the pandemic. Whilst the multiplicity of the support schemes was indeed by no means perfect, it is worth dwelling on the fact that literally millions of livelihoods were maintained in the face of a then-killer virus. It was our now Prime Minister who was so fleet of foot in those turbulent times.
And just as we thought we had come through the worst of it, we then had war erupt in mainland Europe, as Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. The images of children being separated from their families were reminiscent of the 1930s. Aside from the obvious human cost, we could not have fully anticipated the much broader economic consequences of such a conflict. Even a cursory look at the data is instructive in this regard.
Before the war, Ukraine and Russia were together the world’s largest wheat exporters – responsible for over a third (36 per cent) of exports. Similarly, during the first two weeks of the war, Brent prices – the European oil benchmark – increased by more than 25 per cent. By the end of March, European gas prices were around 580 per cent higher than a year earlier. Again, this Government directly stepped in – offering most households a rebate on their Council Tax and more memorably, directly paying towards our energy bills via the Energy Bills Support Scheme.
Of course, the consequences of these crises were inextricably linked. Inflation was already rising because of Covid-stretched supply chains, as increased demand collided with constrained supply, particularly in the latter half of 2021. The illegal invasion of Ukraine simply added rocket fuel to higher inflation that was already in the system.
Two enormous shocks have buffeted much of the world economy at the dawn of the 2020s. As an open trading nation, we were never immune from such shocks; indeed, we can never insulate ourselves entirely from what happens in the rest of the world. But this Government has shown, in those darkest of days, that it had our backs, and supported us when we needed it most. The speed of Government, particularly in March 2020, was pretty remarkable.
Some think we talk about this backdrop too much in this election. “Pipe down” you might say, “we’ve heard this all before”. But, the reality is that we simply cannot ignore this context; in fact, the context is everything. And now, this Prime Minister has got us to the stage where we can start the process of reducing taxes and think anew about what we want from the state. Given where we have been, that is no mean feat given the legacy of the last 5 years and it is very much positive that we now are here.
This election should indeed be about the future. Whilst no politician will publicly talk about the desire to be rewarded for past action, I do think there is some justification in saying that we have come through two enormous crises together, and this Prime Minister has got us to the stage where we can start talking about the future.
This article was first published by ConservativeHome on 03.07.2024.